Where Things Stand
One week to go in the regular season. Do you know where your team will land?
Here's what you're looking at. Using the Tournament Odds, this simulates the rest of the schedule 1,000 times, looking for as many combinations of Heal Points as possible, with a preference on how likely they are. It then assigns a percentage of how often a team lands on a certain seed.
For this, I'm going to call anything that's over 95% (more or less), so it's possible one of these might not come through. Crazier things have happened.
If anyone's locked into a seed or it's down to 2-3 teams, I'll list those. But if it looks like this, I'm just going to tell you how many teams are in the mix.
These take a LONG time to run, so if I found your score after I started running this, it won't be reflected here. Also let me know if anything looks weird, because typos do slip through.
If you want more detail, sign up for a paid subscription and look at the Tourney Odds. They're awesome. It'll answer a lot of your questions! Plus you'll get good Heal Points, the Media Guide for the Tournament, and much, much more.
Here we go!
AA North Boys
In: 7 (Oxford Hills, Lewiston, Portland, Cheverus, Hampden, Edward Little, Windham)
Out: 0
1: Oxford Hills
2/3: Lewiston/Portland
4: Cheverus
5: Hampden
6: Edward Little
7/8: Windham/Bangor/Deering
AA North Girls
In: 7 (Cheverus, Oxford Hills, Bangor, Windham, Hampden, Edward Little, Deering)
Out: 0
1-3: Cheverus/Oxford Hills/Bangor
4-5: Windham/Hamdpen
6-7: Edward Little/Deering
8-9: Lewiston/Portland
AA South Boys
In: 8 (Everyone)
Out: 0
1: TA
2/3: Gorham/SoPo
4: Bonny Eagle
5/6: Noble/Sanford
7: Scarborough
8: Massabesic
AA South Girls
In: 7 (Everyone)
Out: 0
1: TA
2/3: Sanford/Gorham
4: Scarborough
5: SoPo
6: Bonny Eagle
7: Noble
A North Boys
In: 7 (Brewer, Nokomis, Skowhegan, Cony, Mount Blue, Lawrence Messo)
Out: Gardiner
1: Brewer
2: Nokomis/Skow
3/4: Nokomis/Skow/Mt. Blue/Cony
5-7: Skow/Mt. Blue/Cony/Lawrence/Messo
8: Camden/Erskine
A North Girls
In: 8 (Gardiner, Lawrence, Cony, Camden, Nokomis, Skowhegan, Erskine, Brewer)
Out: 2 (Mt. Blue, Messo)
1: Gardiner
2/3: Lawrence/Cony
4: Camden
5: Nokomis
6: Skowhegan
7: Erskine
8: Brewer
A South Boys
In: 7 (Falmouth, Westbrook, GNG, Marshwood, Greely, Fryeburg, Kennebun)
Out: Morse
1: Falmouth/Westbrook
2-4: Falmouth/Westbrook/GNG/Marshwood
5-7: Greely/Fryeburg/Kennebunk
8: Mt. Ararat/Brunswick/Freeport/Biddeford
A South Girls
In: 5 (Brunswick, Mt. Ararat, GNG, Marshwood, Greely)
Out: 3 (Kennebunk, Morse, Biddeford)
1: Brunswick
2/3: Mt. Ararat/GNG
4-9: Marshwood/Falmouth/Greely/Freeport/Westbrook/Fryeburg
B North Boys
In: 8 (Ellsworth, Orono, Winslow, Old Town, Foxcroft, Caribou, Mount View, WA)
Out: Belfast
1: Ellsworth
2-4: Orono/Winslow/Old Town/Foxcroft/Caribou
5/6: Old Town/Foxcroft/Caribou
7-12: 8 teams
B North Girls
In: 10 (Old Town, Caribou, Ellsworth, Houlton, MDI, WA, Foxcroft, Presque Isle, MCI, Hermon)
Out: 4 (Waterville, Winslow, Orono, Bucksport)
1: Old Town
2: Caribou
3: Ellsworth
4: Houlton/MDI/WA/Foxcroft
5-13: Yikes (10 teams)
B South Boys
In: 8 (Oceanside, Yarmouth, Spruce, Medomak, York, Maranacook, Lincoln, Cape)
Out: 2 (Poland/Oak Hill)
1-3: Oceanside/Yarmouth/Spruce
4/5: Medomak/York/Maranacook
6: York/Maranacook/Lincoln/Cape
7-10: 7 teams
B South Girls
In: 7 (Oceanside, Spruce, Wells, Medomak, Lake Region, Maranacook, Yarmouth)
Out: Poland
1/2: Oceanside/Spruce
3: Wells/Oceanside/Spruce
4/5: Medomak/Lake Region/Maranacook
6: Lake Region/Maranacook
7-10: 6 teams
C North Boys
In: 8 (Dexter, Calais, Fort Kent, Lee, Woodland, Fort Fairfield, GSA, Penobscot Valley)
Out: 2 (Central Aroostook, Narraguagus)
1/2: Dexter/Calais
3: Fort Kent
4-13: 13 teams (kind of a mess)
C North Girls
In: 7 (Dexter, Penobscot Valley, Hodgdon, Central, Mattanawcook, Calais, Fort Kent)
Out: 3 (Searsport, Lee Academy, Madawaska)
1: Dexter
2-4: Penobscot Valley/Hodgdon/Central
5: Mattanawcook
6: Calais
7-13: 9 teams
C South Boys
In: 9 (Dirigo, OOB, Monmouth, Richmond, Mount Abram, Boothbay, Carrabec, Waynflete, Madison)
Out: 3 (Buckfield, Telstar, Wiscasset)
1: Dirigo
2-4: OOB/Monmouth/Richmond/Mount Abram
5/6: Monmouth/Richmond/Mount Abram/Boothbay/Carrabec
7-13: 9 teams
C South Girls
In: 11 (NYA, OOB, Kents Hill, Hall-Dale, Richmond, Monmouth, Winthrop, Carrabec, Madison, Traip, Sacopee Valley)
Out: 4 (St. Dom, Buckfield, Boothbay, Wiscasset)
1: NYA
2/3: OOB/Kents Hill/HD
4-13: 11 teams
D North Boys
In: 8 (Southern Aroostook, Machias, Bangor Christian, Schenck, Easton, Katahdin, Jonesport, Wisdom)
Out: 0
1: Southern Aroostook
2-4: Machias/Bangor Christian/Schenck/Easton
3-6: Machias/Deer Isle/Katahdin/East Grand/Jonesport
7/8: Katahdin/Jonesport/Wisdom
9/10: Van Buren/Ashland/Shead/Deer Isle
D North Girls
In: 6 (Southern Aroostook, Wisdom, Machias, Deer Isle, Katahdin, East Grand)
Out: Van Buren
1: Southern Aroostook
2: Wisdom
3-6: Machias/Deer Isle/Katahdin/East Grand/Jonesport
7-10: East Grand/Jonesport/Ashland/Washburn/Schenck/Easton
D South Boys
In: 7 (Forest Hills, Valley, Seacoast, Islesboro, Greenville, Vinalhaven, Temple)
Out: 0
1: Forest Hills
2: Valley
3-5: Seacoast/Islesboro/Greenville
6: Greenville/Vinalhaven/Temple
7: Temple, probably
8: North Haven?/Pine Tree
D South Girls
In: 5 (Valley, Forest Hills, Seacoast Christian, Pine Tree, Vinalhaven)
Out: 0
1: Valley
2/3: Forest Hills/Seacoast
4: Pine Tree
5-8: Everyone else