Dancing

by Maine Basketball Rankings

Recently, I unveiled the tourney odds for both the boys and girls models, which tell us with a great deal of certainty which teams will and will not be playing in the tournament. But, it turns out coaches are really pessimistic, so when you tell a team that’s 7-0 that the worst they could realistically do is finish, say, 9-9, their first question is, “but what if we lose all 11?” So now we have a second massive spreadsheet that essentially treats every game the rest of the way as a coin flip, thus ensuring that we find seasons where that team does, in fact, lose all 11. Or, in Greely’s case, we have 11 scenarios out of 1,000 where they lose their last 7 and finish 11-7.

This takes the system from being predictive to not-at-all predictive and basically just tells us who’s clinched and who has been eliminated. Is it perfect? Probably not. It doesn’t, for example, run 1,000 scenarios where Greely loses out to search for every single possibility (and there are a lot), but we’re talking about trillion-to-1 stuff here. If this has you at 100% or 0%, I’m calling it.

So, let’s break this down, skipping AA, where everyone is in (eyeroll). Boys will follow when I get it all updated.

A North

Clinched

Skowhegan

Hampden

Eliminated

n/a

A South

Clinched

Brunswick

Greely (bye)

Kennebunk (bye)

Marshwood

Eliminated

n/a

B North

Clinched

Hermon

MDI

Waterville

Can’t get a bye

Belfast

Caribou

Washington Academy

Eliminated

n/a

B South

Clinched

GNG

Oak Hill (bye)

Can’t get a bye

n/a

Eliminated

n/a

C North

Clinched

Calais

Madawaska

Can’t get a bye

GSA

Hodgdon

Lee Academy

Piscataquis

Sumner

Eliminated

n/a

C South

Clinched

Boothbay

Winthrop

Can’t get a bye

Carrabec

Kents Hill

Mount Abram

Richmond

Telstar

Traip

Waynflete

Wiscasset

Eliminated

n/a

D North

Clinched

Deer Isle-Stonington

Southern Aroostook

Can’t get a bye

n/a

Eliminated

n/a

D South

Clinched

Forest Hills (bye)

Greenville (bye)

Pine Tree (bye)

Rangeley Lakes (bye)

Temple (bye)

Valley (bye)

Can’t get a bye

n/a

Eliminated

n/a

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