Checking the Model

by Maine Basketball Rankings

There’s not a lot of people doing math stuff for high school basketball (Ok, it might only be me), so I try to check myself whenever possible to make sure the processes are holding up ok. But one thing I haven’t ever remembered to do is save what it says mid-season and see how it all turns out. Because it’s pretty easy to say something in early January and then ghost that projection when your pick falls apart. Anyway, let’s go to the math!

I had this idea that I was going to grab the projections every day, but that didn’t happen. Thankfully, I grabbed both the boys and girls projections on January 8th, a full month before the end of the regular season. We were so young then! The Super Bowl was but a glimmer in our eyes!

So I took the seeding order from January 8th and compared it to the final seeding to see just how many tourney spots it got right and how badly it missed on some. I thought about doing individual seeds for everyone, but that’s a whole thing and I’m honestly not sure what to compare it to. If the model was 1.7 off for each seed, what does that mean, exactly? But, if it got 50% of the field correct, we understand that. Going into this, I was hoping I’d gotten 80% right. The Heal Points are very complex and a lot can happen, as we all know.

On the girls side, here’s what we have…

Yes, I’m taking credit for AA, because I’m not the person who came up with that system and I would have gotten most of them right anyway. I was either exactly right or 1 off on seeding of 13 of the 16 teams in AA. But, also. Wow. B North and C North are the biggest surprises. Those are not easy regions.

I got these wrong:

A North: Erskine/Brewer

A South: I had Biddeford 7th and York 9th. I also had Fryeburg 10th.

B North: 🔥🔥🔥

B South: I had Cape out and Lake Region in. I had Spruce Mountain getting a bye.

C North: I had Madawaska getting the bye and not Central Aroostook

C South: I flipped Traip and Kents Hill

D North: Easton/Jonesport-Beals

D South: 🔥🔥🔥

As for the Boys, well, Brewer got me again…

I know what you’re thinking and, no, these numbers shouldn’t be this high. It’s a little ridiculous. Anyway here’s who failed me, including you-know-who.

A North: Brewer/Messo, but I feel like that’s not my fault. Or maybe it is.

A South: 🔥🔥🔥

AA North/South: 14/18 either exact or 1 off

B North: 🔥🔥🔥

B South: I had Wells getting the bye over Yarmouth

C North: I had Hodgdon in over Lee Academy

C South: 🔥🔥🔥

D North: I really screwed this up. My 9-12 seeds were all wrong.

D South: 🔥🔥🔥

That’s a total of 95.4% of the tourney field correct a full month before the field is set and 94.4% of the teams getting a bye.

Oh, and as for seeding…

Perfect: 34.6%

Off by 1: 37.6%

Off by 2: 12.5%

Off by 3: 8.4%

Off by 4: 4.2%

Off by 5: 1.9%

Off by 7: 0.8%

Maybe I can do better next year, but I doubt it.

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